Track record · closed signal

ASML Holding NV ADR (ASML) — closed signal from April 24, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 23, 2026 — +23.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ASML price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$1,430.00 – $1,470.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$1,455.51Published — price the day we called it

$1,673.84Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$1,999.96Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$1,803.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 39 days.

At window close

+23.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+37.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$1,803.00

last close inside the window, ended July 23, 2026

Peak price

$1,999.96

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 24, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$1,673.84

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$1,430.00 – $1,470.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$1,455.51

published April 24, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

ASML is a way to benefit from rising demand for chips used in AI without chasing the hottest trades. Strong orders tied to growing AI memory needs support future sales, and the company has a solid balance sheet to handle uncertainty from a proposed US bill about exports to China. The shares are also trading near a price level that has helped keep the trend intact, which makes the setup more constructive despite policy risk.

Primary drivers

Growing AI memory demand should boost orders for ASML tools
Stock is near a steady trend level rather than an overheated move
Healthy balance sheet reduces damage from policy setbacks
Recent quarter showed steady execution and resilient orders

How it played out

ASML: target reached in 39 days

Lyra published ASML at 1455.51 with expected growth of 15%. The thesis pointed to rising demand for chips used in artificial intelligence, resilient orders, steady execution, a healthy balance sheet, and shares trading near a level that had kept the trend intact. It also noted policy risk.

The price reached the 1673.84 target in 39 days. It later peaked at 1999.96 on June 30, a gain of 37.4%. ASML ended the window at 1803, still above the target. The published thesis played out within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On July 15, 2026, ASML reported second-quarter net sales of €9.3 billion and net income of €2.9 billion. It also said order intake had remained very strong during the first half of 2026.

ASML reports €9.3 billion total net sales and €2.9 billion net income in Q2 2026

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ASML signals