Track record · closed signal

ASML Holding NV ADR (ASML) — closed signal from April 24, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 23, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

ASML price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,455.51 Published $1,673.84 Target $1,803.00 Window close $1,999.96 Peak
$1,430.00 – $1,470.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,455.51Published — price the day we called it
$1,673.84Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,999.96Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,803.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 39 days.

Peak price
$1,999.96
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+37.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$1,803.00
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
39
Window
April 24, 2026 – July 23, 2026

The thesis — published April 24, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,673.84
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,430.00 – $1,470.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,455.51
published April 24, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

ASML is a way to benefit from rising demand for chips used in AI without chasing the hottest trades. Strong orders tied to growing AI memory needs support future sales, and the company has a solid balance sheet to handle uncertainty from a proposed US bill about exports to China. The shares are also trading near a price level that has helped keep the trend intact, which makes the setup more constructive despite policy risk.

Primary drivers

  • Growing AI memory demand should boost orders for ASML tools
  • Stock is near a steady trend level rather than an overheated move
  • Healthy balance sheet reduces damage from policy setbacks
  • Recent quarter showed steady execution and resilient orders

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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