Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 23, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 22, 2026 — +9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$374.62 – $382.59Entry zone — fair-value band

$386.26Published — price the day we called it

$451.10Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$421.21Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 56 days.

At window close

+9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+24%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$421.21

last close inside the window, ended July 22, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 23, 2026

Predicted growth

+17%

over the measurement window

Target price

$451.10

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$374.62 – $382.59

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$386.26

published April 23, 2026

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Taiwan Semiconductor is kept because its business is among the strongest and recent updates made that case clearer. A major bank raised its price target after solid results, and talk of strong AI-related demand and pricing power supports continued earnings strength. The main worry is timing: the stock has moved up quickly, so upside in the next 0-3 months is possible but a pullback would present a cleaner opportunity.

Primary drivers

Bank raised its price target after better-than-expected results
Growing AI demand and improved pricing support factory orders
Strong cash position and repeated earnings beats boost credibility
A retreat toward the entry range would make the setup less stretched

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 56 days

On April 23, Lyra published TSM at 386.26, expecting 17% growth over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to a bank's higher price target after better-than-expected results, growing demand tied to artificial intelligence, improved pricing, factory orders, a strong cash position, and repeated earnings beats. It also warned that the stock had risen quickly and could pull back.

Within the window, TSM rose from 386.26 to a 479 peak on June 30, above the 451.10 target and a 24% peak gain. It reached the target in 56 days. By July 22, it had fallen to 421.21, but the target had already been met. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On June 10, TSMC reported May revenue of NT$416.98 billion, up 30.1% from May 2025. On July 16, it reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and net income of NT$706.56 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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