Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 22, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 21, 2026 — +14% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$372.34 Published $434.84 Target $424.61 Window close $479.00 Peak
$363.66 – $376.61Entry zone — fair-value band
$372.34Published — price the day we called it
$434.84Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$424.61Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 40 days.

At window close
+14%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+28.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$424.61
last close inside the window, ended July 21, 2026
Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
40

The thesis — published April 22, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$434.84
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$363.66 – $376.61
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$372.34
published April 22, 2026
Confidence
85%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC runs chip factories that many top tech companies rely on, and it has been delivering steady results. Demand for AI chips and its lead in advanced manufacturing support continued estimate strength. Geopolitical concerns are the main risk, but solid earnings, a strong balance sheet, and high stock liquidity make the near-term picture appealing.

Primary drivers

  • Ongoing demand for AI and advanced-node chips drives factory orders
  • Consistent operational delivery helps analysts raise forecasts
  • A strong balance sheet makes the company more resilient than peers
  • Recent headlines emphasize TSMC's key role in advanced supply chains

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 40 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis at 372.34, with 17% expected growth. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence and advanced-node chips, consistent operations that could support higher forecasts, a strong balance sheet, high liquidity, and the company's role in advanced supply chains. It also identified geopolitical concerns as the main risk.

Inside the window, TSM reached the 434.84 target in 40 days. It later peaked at 479 on June 30, a 28.6% gain, before ending at 424.61 on July 21. The closing price was below the target, but the target had already been reached and exceeded. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On April 22, TSMC unveiled its A13 process technology. On July 16, the company reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and diluted earnings per share of NT$27.25.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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