Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 21, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 20, 2026 — +9.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$358.68 – $370.63Entry zone — fair-value band

$367.71Published — price the day we called it

$433.10Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$402.30Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 41 days.

At window close

+9.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+30.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$402.30

last close inside the window, ended July 20, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 21, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$433.10

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$358.68 – $370.63

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$367.71

published April 21, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Taiwan Semiconductor looks well placed near term because big demand for AI-related chips is helping its business while the stock is less stretched than many rivals. Industry reports point to continued strong chip buying and tight supply, and the follow-up after results still looks constructive. The mix of business strength and price stability feels balanced.

Primary drivers

Steady demand from companies investing in AI hardware and chips
Industry reports show capacity is tight and customers are active
Post-earnings performance confirms a positive near-term trend
Strong balance sheet reduces risk during normal industry swings

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 41 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis at 367.71, with expected growth of 18% and a target of 433.10. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence hardware, tight industry capacity, active customers, positive post-earnings performance, and a strong balance sheet.

The shares reached the target in 41 days. They peaked at 479 on June 30, a gain of 30.3%, then ended the window at 402.30. The close was below the target but above the publication price. The thesis played out within the measurement window and exceeded its stated target at the peak.

What happened during the window

On June 10, 2026, TSMC reported May revenue of NT$416.98 billion, up 30.1% from May 2025. On July 16, 2026, it reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and net income of NT$706.56 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals