Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 21, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 20, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$367.71 Published $433.10 Target $402.30 Window close $479.00 Peak
$358.68 – $370.63Entry zone — fair-value band
$367.71Published — price the day we called it
$433.10Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$402.30Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 41 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+30.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$402.30
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
41
Window
April 21, 2026 – July 20, 2026

The thesis — published April 21, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$433.10
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$358.68 – $370.63
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$367.71
published April 21, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Taiwan Semiconductor looks well placed near term because big demand for AI-related chips is helping its business while the stock is less stretched than many rivals. Industry reports point to continued strong chip buying and tight supply, and the follow-up after results still looks constructive. The mix of business strength and price stability feels balanced.

Primary drivers

  • Steady demand from companies investing in AI hardware and chips
  • Industry reports show capacity is tight and customers are active
  • Post-earnings performance confirms a positive near-term trend
  • Strong balance sheet reduces risk during normal industry swings

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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