Track record · closed signal

Philip Morris International Inc (PM) — closed signal from April 20, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 19, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$157.76 Published $173.67 Target $192.98 Window close $194.62 Peak
$153.45 – $157.38Entry zone — fair-value band
$157.76Published — price the day we called it
$173.67Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$194.62Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$192.98Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 21 days.

Peak price
$194.62
peak on July 17, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+23.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$192.98
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
21
Window
April 20, 2026 – July 19, 2026

The thesis — published April 20, 2026

Predicted growth
+11%
over the measurement window
Target price
$173.67
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$153.45 – $157.38
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$157.76
published April 20, 2026
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Philip Morris looks steadier than many consumer names because the company is shifting sales toward smoke-free products, and recent news highlighted that transition ahead of earnings. Shares have pulled back, the business still generates steady cash, and the product shift helps investor sentiment, suggesting a plausible near-term rebound.

Primary drivers

  • Sales are shifting toward smoke-free products and that mix is growing
  • A near-term earnings report could renew investor interest in the story
  • Stable cash flow gives the business defensive financial strength
  • Lower share price after the pullback makes the short-term setup clearer

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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