Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 20, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 19, 2026 — +9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$354.69 – $368.64Entry zone — fair-value band

$365.48Published — price the day we called it

$437.77Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$398.37Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 42 days.

At window close

+9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+31.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$398.37

last close inside the window, ended July 19, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 20, 2026

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$437.77

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$354.69 – $368.64

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$365.48

published April 20, 2026

Confidence

86%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Taiwan Semiconductor reported stronger-than-expected results while demand from AI and cloud customers is increasing, which gives clearer short-term order visibility. The company has steady execution and healthy profit margins, and the stock price sits near its normal trend rather than at an extreme level, which makes the setup look solid.

Primary drivers

Quarterly results showed the company leading its peer group
Rising AI and cloud demand makes orders easier to see
Strong profit margins and steady operational execution
Price is near normal trend, not at an extreme level

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 42 days

Lyra published a 20% growth thesis for TSM. The thesis pointed to stronger quarterly results, rising artificial intelligence and cloud demand, healthy profit margins, steady execution, and a price near its normal trend. These were the reasons cited at publication, before the outcome was known.

The stock reached the $437.77 target in 42 days. It later peaked at $479 on June 30, a 31.1% gain. By the end of the window, it was at $398.37, below both the target and the peak but above the $365.48 publication price. The thesis played out within the measured window.