Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 20, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 19, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$365.48 Published $437.77 Target $398.37 Window close $479.00 Peak
$354.69 – $368.64Entry zone — fair-value band
$365.48Published — price the day we called it
$437.77Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$398.37Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 42 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+31.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$398.37
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
42
Window
April 20, 2026 – July 19, 2026

The thesis — published April 20, 2026

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$437.77
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$354.69 – $368.64
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$365.48
published April 20, 2026
Confidence
86%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Taiwan Semiconductor reported stronger-than-expected results while demand from AI and cloud customers is increasing, which gives clearer short-term order visibility. The company has steady execution and healthy profit margins, and the stock price sits near its normal trend rather than at an extreme level, which makes the setup look solid.

Primary drivers

  • Quarterly results showed the company leading its peer group
  • Rising AI and cloud demand makes orders easier to see
  • Strong profit margins and steady operational execution
  • Price is near normal trend, not at an extreme level

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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