Track record · closed signal

Philip Morris International Inc (PM) — closed signal from April 19, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 18, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$156.49 Published $169.17 Target $192.98 Window close $194.62 Peak
$152.46 – $157.38Entry zone — fair-value band
$156.49Published — price the day we called it
$169.17Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$194.62Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$192.98Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 19 days.

Peak price
$194.62
peak on July 17, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+24.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$192.98
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
19
Window
April 19, 2026 – July 18, 2026

The thesis — published April 19, 2026

Predicted growth
+9%
over the measurement window
Target price
$169.17
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$152.46 – $157.38
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$156.49
published April 19, 2026
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Shares have pulled back while the company's move from cigarettes to smoke-free products remains intact. FDA approval to reauthorize IQOS strengthens that shift, and upcoming earnings offer a near-term event that could move the stock. The short-term setup looks usable for the next 0-3 months if the share price holds near its recent short-term trend, but company leverage and slower category growth keep conviction moderate.

Primary drivers

  • FDA reauthorization supports the smoke-free transition story
  • Reliable cash flow helps stabilize the business
  • Earnings coming soon provide a clear near-term event
  • High leverage and slower category growth limit conviction

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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