Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 19, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 18, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$369.82 Published $435.59 Target $398.37 Window close $479.00 Peak
$358.68 – $370.63Entry zone — fair-value band
$369.82Published — price the day we called it
$435.59Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$398.37Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 43 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+29.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$398.37
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
43
Window
April 19, 2026 – July 18, 2026

The thesis — published April 19, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$435.59
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$358.68 – $370.63
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$369.82
published April 19, 2026
Confidence
86%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is in a strong spot because factories that make the most advanced chips are in high demand, and the company has been executing reliably. The stock looks healthier than many chipmakers and recent industry news keeps interest up despite geopolitical concerns. Near-term outlook is positive while price stays close to its recent trend.

Primary drivers

  • Continued strong demand for factories making advanced AI and high-performance chips
  • Industry headlines keep investor interest and buying appetite intact
  • Company reports show steady, reliable business execution
  • Shares are relatively less extended than many large chip competitors

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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