Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 17, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 16, 2026 — +10.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$358.68 – $370.63Entry zone — fair-value band

$370.85Published — price the day we called it

$436.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$409.74Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 45 days.

At window close

+10.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+29.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$409.74

last close inside the window, ended July 16, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 17, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$436.80

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$358.68 – $370.63

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$370.85

published April 17, 2026

Confidence

86%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Taiwan Semiconductor looks well placed over the next few months because recent results confirmed its lead in making chips for AI and high-performance computing, where demand is steady. The price action is reasonable compared with peers, giving more timing flexibility. Strong cash and low debt reduce downside risk after the earnings surprise.

Primary drivers

Recent results confirmed its leadership in chip manufacturing
Demand for AI and high-performance computing chips remains steady
Healthy balance sheet cushions normal industry swings
Price action is reasonable compared with more stretched peers

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 45 days

Lyra published the TSM thesis on April 17, 2026, at 370.85, with expected growth of 18%. The thesis pointed to chip manufacturing leadership, steady demand for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing chips, a healthy balance sheet, and reasonable price action compared with peers.

The shares reached the 436.80 target in 45 days. They later peaked at 479 on June 30, a gain of 29.2%. By the end of the window on July 16, the price had fallen to 409.74, but remained above the publication price. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated target.

What happened during the window

On May 8, 2026, TSMC reported April revenue of NT$410.73 billion, up 17.5% from April 2025. On July 16, 2026, it reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and diluted earnings per share of NT$27.25.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals