Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 17, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$370.85 Published $436.80 Target $409.74 Window close $479.00 Peak
$358.68 – $370.63Entry zone — fair-value band
$370.85Published — price the day we called it
$436.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$409.74Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 45 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+29.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$409.74
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
45
Window
April 17, 2026 – July 16, 2026

The thesis — published April 17, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$436.80
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$358.68 – $370.63
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$370.85
published April 17, 2026
Confidence
86%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Taiwan Semiconductor looks well placed over the next few months because recent results confirmed its lead in making chips for AI and high-performance computing, where demand is steady. The price action is reasonable compared with peers, giving more timing flexibility. Strong cash and low debt reduce downside risk after the earnings surprise.

Primary drivers

  • Recent results confirmed its leadership in chip manufacturing
  • Demand for AI and high-performance computing chips remains steady
  • Healthy balance sheet cushions normal industry swings
  • Price action is reasonable compared with more stretched peers

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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