Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from July 28, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 26, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$244.17 Published $291.29 Target $294.17 Window close $310.53 Peak
$233.26 – $240.18Entry zone — fair-value band
$244.17Published — price the day we called it
$291.29Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$310.53Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$294.17Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 66 days.

Peak price
$310.53
peak on October 16, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+27.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$294.17
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
66
Window
July 28, 2025 – October 26, 2025

The thesis — published July 28, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$291.29
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$233.26 – $240.18
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$244.17
published July 28, 2025
Confidence
88%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM just showed its clear technology lead when Tesla placed a huge $16.5 billion chip order on 28 Jul, locking in years of work. The share price is holding above its recent average, and another results report is coming in three weeks that could show profits growing about 25-30 % a year. In past years, dips toward about $239 often start a steady summer climb of roughly 12 %, so a 20 % gain in the next three months looks realistic as demand for AI and high-power servers keeps rising.

Primary drivers

  • Tesla’s $16.5 b order on 28 Jul locks in demand and proves TSM can charge strong prices.
  • No other company can make lots of 2-nm chips before 2026, giving TSM near-monopoly profits.
  • Trading data says big investors are quietly buying more shares ahead of earnings.
  • August earnings and a usual 12 % post-report climb could lift the stock in 3 months.

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 66 days

Lyra published TSM at $244.17 on 2025-07-28 with a short-term call for 20% growth. The thesis pointed to Tesla's $16.5 billion chip order, a claimed lead in 2-nm chips before 2026, quiet buying by big investors ahead of earnings, and a possible 12% post-report climb. It also cited demand for artificial intelligence and high-power servers.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $291.29 target in 66 days. It later peaked at $310.53 on 2025-10-16, a 27.2% gain, and ended at $294.17 on 2025-10-26. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On Oct. 16, 2025, TSMC reported Q3 revenue of $33.10 billion, up 40.8% year over year and 10.1% quarter over quarter. It also reported net income of $14.77 billion and gross margin of 59.5%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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