Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 14, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 13, 2026 — +12.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$358.68 – $367.65Entry zone — fair-value band

$374.27Published — price the day we called it

$433.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$421.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 48 days.

At window close

+12.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+28%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$421.58

last close inside the window, ended July 13, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 14, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$433.36

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$358.68 – $367.65

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$374.27

published April 14, 2026

Confidence

85%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM looks attractive because rising demand for AI chips is keeping factory use high and helping pricing, while the company is profitable and has a strong balance sheet. Upcoming earnings give a clear reason for the stock to move. The main risk is timing: the price already rose a lot, so the idea looks best if it pulls back first.

Primary drivers

Growing AI chip demand keeps factories busy and supports pricing
Upcoming earnings can keep optimistic forecasts moving higher
Recent AI-infrastructure news points to more industry investment
A strong balance sheet reduces downside risk in volatile markets

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 48 days

Lyra published TSM at 374.27 with 16% expected growth and a 433.36 target. The thesis pointed to rising demand for artificial intelligence chips, high factory use, pricing support, upcoming earnings, industry investment, and a strong balance sheet. It also flagged timing risk after the earlier rise and favored a pullback into 358.68 to 367.65.

Inside the window, TSM reached the target in 48 days and peaked at 479 on June 30, a 28% gain. It ended at 421.58, below the target but above the publication price. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated objective.

What happened during the window

On April 16, TSMC reported first-quarter revenue of NT$1,134.10 billion and diluted earnings per share of NT$22.08. On May 8, it reported April revenue of about NT$410.73 billion, up 17.5% from April 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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