Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 14, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 13, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$374.27 Published $433.36 Target $421.58 Window close $479.00 Peak
$358.68 – $367.65Entry zone — fair-value band
$374.27Published — price the day we called it
$433.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$421.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 48 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+28%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$421.58
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
48
Window
April 14, 2026 – July 13, 2026

The thesis — published April 14, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$433.36
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$358.68 – $367.65
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$374.27
published April 14, 2026
Confidence
85%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM looks attractive because rising demand for AI chips is keeping factory use high and helping pricing, while the company is profitable and has a strong balance sheet. Upcoming earnings give a clear reason for the stock to move. The main risk is timing: the price already rose a lot, so the idea looks best if it pulls back first.

Primary drivers

  • Growing AI chip demand keeps factories busy and supports pricing
  • Upcoming earnings can keep optimistic forecasts moving higher
  • Recent AI-infrastructure news points to more industry investment
  • A strong balance sheet reduces downside risk in volatile markets

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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