Track record · closed signal

Philip Morris International Inc (PM) — closed signal from April 13, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 12, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$161.01 Published $178.84 Target $181.62 Window close $191.46 Peak
$156.40 – $160.33Entry zone — fair-value band
$161.01Published — price the day we called it
$178.84Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$191.46Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$181.62Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 28 days.

Peak price
$191.46
peak on May 19, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+18.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$181.62
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
28
Window
April 13, 2026 – July 12, 2026

The thesis — published April 13, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$178.84
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$156.40 – $160.33
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$161.01
published April 13, 2026
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Philip Morris looks more stable over the next few months because it generates lots of cash, can raise prices without losing many customers, and is expanding smoke-free products. Recent checks show cash remains strong. Rules-related questions about nicotine pouches are a real risk but seem controllable for now. Shares are near a price level that tends to hold, fitting a defensive stance.

Primary drivers

  • Strong cash flow helps the stock hold up in weak markets
  • Growth from smoke-free products adds a new revenue source
  • Ability to raise prices keeps profits steadier in tough times
  • Regulatory questions on pouches are real but currently contained

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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