Track record · closed signal

Philip Morris International Inc (PM) — closed signal from April 13, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 12, 2026 — +12.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$156.40 – $160.33Entry zone — fair-value band

$161.01Published — price the day we called it

$178.84Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$191.46Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$181.62Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 28 days.

At window close

+12.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+18.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+10.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$181.62

last close inside the window, ended July 12, 2026

Peak price

$191.46

peak on May 19, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 13, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$178.84

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$156.40 – $160.33

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$161.01

published April 13, 2026

Confidence

76%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Philip Morris looks more stable over the next few months because it generates lots of cash, can raise prices without losing many customers, and is expanding smoke-free products. Recent checks show cash remains strong. Rules-related questions about nicotine pouches are a real risk but seem controllable for now. Shares are near a price level that tends to hold, fitting a defensive stance.

Primary drivers

Strong cash flow helps the stock hold up in weak markets
Growth from smoke-free products adds a new revenue source
Ability to raise prices keeps profits steadier in tough times
Regulatory questions on pouches are real but currently contained

How it played out

PM: target reached in 28 days

Lyra published PM at $161.01, expecting a 12% rise over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to strong cash flow, pricing power, growth from smoke-free products, and manageable regulatory questions around nicotine pouches. It also viewed the shares as near a price level that tended to hold.

PM reached the $178.84 target in 28 days. It peaked at $191.46 on May 19, a gain of 18.9%, then ended the window at $181.62. The target was still exceeded at the close. The published thesis played out within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On April 22, 2026, Philip Morris reported first-quarter net revenue of $10.1 billion. Smoke-free products accounted for 43% of total net revenue.

Philip Morris International Reports 2026 First-Quarter Results

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PM signals