Track record · closed signal

Philip Morris International Inc (PM) — closed signal from April 12, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$159.13 Published $178.34 Target $181.62 Window close $191.46 Peak
$154.43 – $158.36Entry zone — fair-value band
$159.13Published — price the day we called it
$178.34Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$191.46Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$181.62Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 29 days.

Peak price
$191.46
peak on May 19, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+20.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$181.62
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
29
Window
April 12, 2026 – July 11, 2026

The thesis — published April 12, 2026

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$178.34
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$154.43 – $158.36
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$159.13
published April 12, 2026
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Philip Morris looks like a defensive company that is also showing real growth. Strong ZYN shipments and the shift to smoke-free products support the business story, and the stock's price behavior is less stretched than many recent winners. Debt levels and regulatory uncertainty limit top-tier confidence, but near-term prospects appear attractive.

Primary drivers

  • Growth coming from smoke-free product sales and adoption
  • Strong ZYN shipment news reinforces its category lead
  • Being in a defensive sector helps balance risk versus growth names
  • Price behavior is less extended than many recent winners

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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