Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 12, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$369.92 Published $428.32 Target $434.11 Window close $479.00 Peak
$356.69 – $364.66Entry zone — fair-value band
$369.92Published — price the day we called it
$428.32Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$434.11Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 45 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+29.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$434.11
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
45
Window
April 12, 2026 – July 11, 2026

The thesis — published April 12, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$428.32
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$356.69 – $364.66
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$369.92
published April 12, 2026
Confidence
85%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Taiwan Semiconductor stands out because its business position and near-term outlook are clear for the next few months. Recent reports reinforced its lead in manufacturing advanced chips, and its strong balance sheet and steady execution look safer than many peers tied to AI. The stock has risen a lot recently, so the setup is stronger if it drops back toward support before earnings.

Primary drivers

  • Leading manufacturer for chips used in AI and data centers
  • Earnings timing can change investor sentiment and set expectations
  • A strong balance sheet helps limit downside risk
  • Recent news confirmed strength in advanced chip market share

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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