Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 10, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 9, 2026 — +16.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$360.67 – $370.63Entry zone — fair-value band

$376.26Published — price the day we called it

$443.17Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$436.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 52 days.

At window close

+16.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+27.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+10.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$436.96

last close inside the window, ended July 9, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 10, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$443.17

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$360.67 – $370.63

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$376.26

published April 10, 2026

Confidence

86%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM looks attractive for the next 0-3 months because recent sales updates show stronger demand from AI customers, and an upcoming earnings report could confirm that strength. The company's manufacturing lead and strong balance sheet reduce downside risk. Price has already climbed, so the best opportunities appear if shares pull back into the suggested zone.

Primary drivers

Sales updates show stronger AI demand ahead of results
Advanced manufacturing supports steady prices and high factory use
Healthy balance sheet reduces risk and funds growth
Street sentiment lifted after higher targets and profit guidance

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 52 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for TSM at 376.26, expecting 18% growth and a 443.17 target. The thesis pointed to stronger demand from artificial intelligence customers, advanced manufacturing, a healthy balance sheet, and improved analyst sentiment. It also said the next earnings report could confirm the sales strength, while favoring an entry on a pullback.

Within the window, TSM reached 443.17 in 52 days. It later peaked at 479 on June 30, a 27.3% gain from publication. The shares ended the window at 436.96, below the target but above the publication price. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On April 16, TSMC reported first-quarter revenue of NT$1,134.10 billion and diluted earnings per share of NT$22.08. On June 10, it reported May revenue of NT$416.98 billion, up 30.1% from May 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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