Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 10, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 9, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$376.26 Published $443.17 Target $436.96 Window close $479.00 Peak
$360.67 – $370.63Entry zone — fair-value band
$376.26Published — price the day we called it
$443.17Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$436.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 52 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+27.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$436.96
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
52
Window
April 10, 2026 – July 9, 2026

The thesis — published April 10, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$443.17
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$360.67 – $370.63
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$376.26
published April 10, 2026
Confidence
86%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM looks attractive for the next 0-3 months because recent sales updates show stronger demand from AI customers, and an upcoming earnings report could confirm that strength. The company's manufacturing lead and strong balance sheet reduce downside risk. Price has already climbed, so the best opportunities appear if shares pull back into the suggested zone.

Primary drivers

  • Sales updates show stronger AI demand ahead of results
  • Advanced manufacturing supports steady prices and high factory use
  • Healthy balance sheet reduces risk and funds growth
  • Street sentiment lifted after higher targets and profit guidance

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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