Track record · closed signal

Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) — closed signal from July 27, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 25, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

STWD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$18.95 Published $20.18 Target $18.16 Window close $19.81 Peak
$17.17 – $18.26Entry zone — fair-value band
$18.95Published — price the day we called it
$20.18Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$19.81Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$18.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 38% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$19.81
peak on September 11, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+4.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$18.16
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
July 27, 2025 – October 25, 2025

The thesis — published July 27, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$20.18
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$17.17 – $18.26
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$18.95
published July 27, 2025
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

On July 23 Starwood bought a $2.2 billion property portfolio, giving it income from more kinds of tenants and helping it keep paying its 10 % yearly dividend. Even though the stock slipped to about its recent average price, buying interest remains steady. With the market fairly upbeat and loan costs easing, the share could move toward $22.4 while owners pick up another 3 % dividend over the next three months.

Primary drivers

  • July deal adds many new rent payments, making the dividend easier to afford.
  • Big 12 % yearly yield, with an extra 3 % cash expected this quarter.
  • Stock looks beaten-down but trading activity hints it may bounce soon.
  • Improving economy could cut loan costs for its properties and lift value.

How it played out

STWD: thesis rose but missed the target

Lyra published STWD at $18.95 on July 27, 2025, with 12% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to the July 23 purchase of a $2.2 billion property portfolio, a 10% yearly dividend, an expected 3% cash dividend for the quarter, steady buying interest, and easing loan costs.

Inside the window, the stock rose to $19.81 on September 11, with a 4.6% peak gain. It stayed below the $20.18 target and never reached it. By October 25, it ended at $18.16. The thesis partially played out on direction, but it missed the target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All STWD signals