Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 9, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 8, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$366.25 Published $409.44 Target $436.98 Window close $479.00 Peak
$354.69 – $364.66Entry zone — fair-value band
$366.25Published — price the day we called it
$409.44Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$436.98Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 18 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+30.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$436.98
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
18
Window
April 9, 2026 – July 8, 2026

The thesis — published April 9, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$409.44
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$354.69 – $364.66
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$366.25
published April 9, 2026
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC looks strong for the next quarter because it leads in the most advanced chip-making technology, generates lots of cash, and has an earnings report coming soon. Recent analyst tone turned more positive, supporting the idea that demand for AI-related chips is healthy. After a big run-up, the stock seems stretched, so dips offer a clearer chance to buy.

Primary drivers

  • Leading advanced chip-making position tied to AI supply
  • Earnings coming soon that could confirm demand trends
  • High cash flow helps fund expensive chip factories
  • Positive pre-earnings coverage supports buying interest

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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