Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 9, 2026
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 8, 2026 — +19.3% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 18 days.
The thesis — published April 9, 2026
TSMC looks strong for the next quarter because it leads in the most advanced chip-making technology, generates lots of cash, and has an earnings report coming soon. Recent analyst tone turned more positive, supporting the idea that demand for AI-related chips is healthy. After a big run-up, the stock seems stretched, so dips offer a clearer chance to buy.
Primary drivers
- Leading advanced chip-making position tied to AI supply
- Earnings coming soon that could confirm demand trends
- High cash flow helps fund expensive chip factories
- Positive pre-earnings coverage supports buying interest
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 18 days
On April 9, Lyra published a short-term thesis from a price of 366.25 and expected 12% growth. The thesis pointed to advanced chip-making, cash flow to fund factories, upcoming earnings, and positive coverage tied to demand for artificial intelligence chips.
The stock reached the 409.44 target in 18 days. It later peaked at 479 on June 30, a 30.8% gain, and ended at 436.98 on July 8. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective within the window.
What happened during the window
On April 16, TSMC reported first-quarter revenue of NT$1,134.10 billion and diluted earnings per share of NT$22.08. On April 23, it debuted its A13 process technology.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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