Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 8, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 7, 2026 — +17.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$348.72 – $360.67Entry zone — fair-value band

$367.52Published — price the day we called it

$429.21Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$432.57Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 54 days.

At window close

+17.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+30.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+10.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$432.57

last close inside the window, ended July 7, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 8, 2026

Predicted growth

+17%

over the measurement window

Target price

$429.21

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$348.72 – $360.67

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$367.52

published April 8, 2026

Confidence

79%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC is a market leader in making chips used for AI and other big tech uses. Its strong profits and cash give it stability, and upcoming earnings could confirm better factory use and pricing. Headlines about AI help demand, but valuation and geopolitics can quickly shift sentiment, so the idea is best on price pullbacks.

Primary drivers

Market-leading chip manufacturing for AI and high-end compute
Healthy profits and cash to handle short-term swings
Earnings may show higher factory use and better pricing
News keeps AI demand visible but also highlights geopolitical risk

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 54 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for TSM at $367.52, with 17% expected growth and a $429.21 target. The thesis pointed to its leading role in chip manufacturing for artificial intelligence and high-end computing, healthy profits and cash, and upcoming earnings that might show better factory use and pricing. It also noted valuation and geopolitical risk.

The shares reached the target in 54 days. They peaked at $479 on June 30, a 30.3% gain, then ended the window at $432.57. The close remained above the target. The published thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective.

What happened during the window

On April 16, 2026, TSMC reported first-quarter revenue of NT$1,134.10 billion and net income of NT$572.48 billion. On June 10, 2026, it reported May revenue of NT$416.98 billion, up 30.1% from May 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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