Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 7, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 6, 2026 — +33.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$331.78 – $340.74Entry zone — fair-value band

$338.87Published — price the day we called it

$405.89Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$451.79Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 17 days.

At window close

+33.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+41.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+14.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$451.79

last close inside the window, ended July 6, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 7, 2026

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$405.89

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$331.78 – $340.74

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$338.87

published April 7, 2026

Confidence

85%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is tied to steady demand for AI chips and the newest production processes, and the share price is sitting near its recent trend instead of running far ahead. Recent news about factory and packaging capacity reinforces the business story, so quality and a reasonable price area make the stock look attractive in a choppy market.

Primary drivers

Demand for AI and advanced-node chip production stays strong
News on advanced packaging keeps capacity in focus
Shares sit near the recent trend rather than well above it
Strong balance sheet helps the company weather volatility

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 17 days

Lyra published a 20% growth thesis at $338.87, with a $331.78 to $340.74 entry zone and a $405.89 target. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence chips and advanced production, packaging capacity, the shares' recent trend, and the balance sheet.

The price reached the target in 17 days. It later peaked at $479 on June 30, a 41.4% gain, and ended the window at $451.79. Both the peak and the closing price were above the target. The thesis played out and exceeded its published goal.

What happened during the window

On April 16, 2026, TSMC reported first-quarter revenue of NT$1,134.10 billion and diluted earnings per share of NT$22.08. On June 10, 2026, it reported May revenue of NT$416.98 billion, up 30.1% from May 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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