Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 7, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 6, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$338.87 Published $405.89 Target $451.79 Window close $479.00 Peak
$331.78 – $340.74Entry zone — fair-value band
$338.87Published — price the day we called it
$405.89Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$451.79Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 17 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+41.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$451.79
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
17
Window
April 7, 2026 – July 6, 2026

The thesis — published April 7, 2026

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$405.89
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$331.78 – $340.74
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$338.87
published April 7, 2026
Confidence
85%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is tied to steady demand for AI chips and the newest production processes, and the share price is sitting near its recent trend instead of running far ahead. Recent news about factory and packaging capacity reinforces the business story, so quality and a reasonable price area make the stock look attractive in a choppy market.

Primary drivers

  • Demand for AI and advanced-node chip production stays strong
  • News on advanced packaging keeps capacity in focus
  • Shares sit near the recent trend rather than well above it
  • Strong balance sheet helps the company weather volatility

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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