Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 6, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 5, 2026 — +26.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$336.76 – $344.73Entry zone — fair-value band

$342.64Published — price the day we called it

$400.16Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$434.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 18 days.

At window close

+26.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+39.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+13.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$434.16

last close inside the window, ended July 5, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 6, 2026

Predicted growth

+17%

over the measurement window

Target price

$400.16

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$336.76 – $344.73

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$342.64

published April 6, 2026

Confidence

83%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Taiwan Semiconductor is seen as a relatively clean semiconductor pick for the next few months because strong AI demand matches steady operations, high manufacturing quality, and a robust balance sheet that can handle chip industry swings. Recent reports highlighted its leadership in building AI chips, and the stock sits near its normal trend rather than being overly extended. Geopolitical risks keep the conviction from being top-tier.

Primary drivers

Leading role in making advanced chips needed for AI growth
Strong factory quality and a healthy balance sheet add stability
Stock sits near its trend instead of being unusually high
Recent news reinforced pricing power and strategic importance

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 18 days

Lyra published TSM at $342.64 on April 6, 2026, with an expected gain of 17% and a $400.16 target. The thesis pointed to demand for advanced chips used in artificial intelligence, manufacturing quality, a healthy balance sheet, and a share price near its usual trend. It also noted geopolitical risk.

TSM reached the $400.16 target in 18 days. It later peaked at $479 on June 30, a gain of 39.8% from publication, and ended the window at $434.16 on July 5. The price remained above the target at the end. The published thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective.

What happened during the window

On April 16, 2026, TSMC reported first-quarter revenue of $35.9 billion and earnings per share of NT$22.08. On June 10, 2026, it reported May revenue of NT$416.98 billion, up 30.1% from May 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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