Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 5, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 4, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$338.42 Published $398.60 Target $434.16 Window close $479.00 Peak
$330.78 – $340.74Entry zone — fair-value band
$338.42Published — price the day we called it
$398.60Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$434.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 19 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+41.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$434.16
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
19
Window
April 5, 2026 – July 4, 2026

The thesis — published April 5, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$398.60
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$330.78 – $340.74
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$338.42
published April 5, 2026
Confidence
86%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC makes the advanced chips that power AI and custom designs, so demand looks steady. The share price is not overly extended and recent analyst coverage highlights TSMC's production edge. An upcoming earnings report gives a time-based event to watch, and current prices sit close to short-term trend support, making the area appear attractive.

Primary drivers

  • Leader in making advanced chips for AI and custom customers
  • Consistent delivery of better-than-expected results
  • Earnings timing creates a clear near-term event
  • Shares are trading near short-term trend support

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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