Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 4, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 3, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$338.42 Published $405.35 Target $434.16 Window close $479.00 Peak
$330.78 – $340.74Entry zone — fair-value band
$338.42Published — price the day we called it
$405.35Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$434.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 20 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+41.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$434.16
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
20
Window
April 4, 2026 – July 3, 2026

The thesis — published April 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$405.35
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$330.78 – $340.74
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$338.42
published April 4, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC stands out because demand from AI is backed by real factory expansion and new customer launches, not just hype. Recent news about a partner using TSMC's advanced process and a second factory in Japan shows customers are committing production. The stock sits near recent support with steady buying interest, allowing exposure without chasing a strong surge.

Primary drivers

  • AI needs advanced chip making where TSMC leads
  • Partner product launches show customers betting on TSMC
  • New Japan factory adds capacity and geographic resilience
  • Stock is close to recent support with steady buying momentum

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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