Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) — closed signal from July 27, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 25, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 71 days.
The thesis — published July 27, 2025
TSMC makes the chips that power almost every top AI product for Nvidia, Apple and AMD, so demand for its work keeps rising. On 7/27 leaders repeated their view that sales can grow about 20% per year for the next five years and secured U.S. and Japan support that eases tariff worries. After a 7% dip, shares sit near the recent average price of $242 and trading is far heavier than normal, suggesting big investors are positioning for another move up in the next three months.
Primary drivers
- Company guides 20% yearly sales growth for five years; new aid eases tariff worry.
- Handles most top-tier AI chip work for Nvidia, Apple and AMD, securing steady demand.
- Stock dipped to recent average price on high volume, hinting big investors buying.
- Past setups like this often added 20% or more within about three months.
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 71 days
Lyra published TSM at $244.17 on 2025-07-27 with a short-term thesis for 25% growth. The thesis pointed to about 20% yearly sales growth for five years, demand tied to artificial intelligence chips for Nvidia, Apple and AMD, tariff relief from U.S. and Japan support, and heavy trading after a 7% dip.
Inside the window, TSM rose to a $310.53 peak on 2025-10-16. That was above the $303.43 target, and the target was reached in 71 days. The peak gain was 27.2%. By 2025-10-25, it ended at $294.17. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and earnings per ADR of $2.92. The company also gave fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $32.2 billion to $33.4 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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