Track record · closed signal

Vista Oil Gas ADR (VIST) — closed signal from April 3, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 2, 2026 — -15.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VIST price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$69.00 – $72.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$71.62Published — price the day we called it

$80.21Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$81.44Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$60.36Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 47 days.

At window close

-15.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+13.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+13.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$60.36

last close inside the window, ended July 2, 2026

Peak price

$81.44

peak on May 20, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 3, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$80.21

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$69.00 – $72.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$71.62

published April 3, 2026

Confidence

69%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Vista is a short-term energy pick tied to changes in oil prices and updated profit forecasts rather than a clear upward trend in the share price. Recent news and higher profit estimates help the case, but oil-driven swings and geopolitical stories keep the stock sensitive. The price looks more like it is stabilizing than surging, so conviction is cautious.

Primary drivers

Analysts are raising profit estimates, which supports the stock
Low price relative to peers helps absorb swings in oil
News about geopolitics often moves this group quickly
Price behavior shows stabilizing more than a clear move higher

How it played out

VIST: target reached in 47 days

Lyra published VIST at 71.62 with expected growth of 12% and a target of 80.21. The thesis pointed to rising profit estimates, a low price relative to peers, sensitivity to oil and geopolitical news, and price behavior that looked more stable than clearly upward. Conviction was cautious.

VIST reached the target in 47 days. It peaked at 81.44 on 2026-05-20, a gain of 13.7%. The price then fell and ended the window at 60.36. The published target was reached, so the thesis played out within the stated window, although the gain did not hold through the end.

What happened during the window

On April 29, 2026, Vista reported first-quarter production of 134,741 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 67% from the prior year. On May 7, 2026, the company completed its acquisition of interests in the Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro blocks.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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