Track record · closed signal

Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) — closed signal from April 3, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 2, 2026 — +25.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$93.00 – $96.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$95.22Published — price the day we called it

$99.98Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$122.65Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$119.30Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 6 days.

At window close

+25.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+28.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+13.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$119.30

last close inside the window, ended July 2, 2026

Peak price

$122.65

peak on July 1, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 3, 2026

Predicted growth

+5%

over the measurement window

Target price

$99.98

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$93.00 – $96.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$95.22

published April 3, 2026

Confidence

64%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TD looks steady but likely to trade in a narrow range over the next 0-3 months rather than run higher quickly. New initiatives around AI and the Easy Trade app should help the bank operate more efficiently and attract clients, but trading activity is light and upside appears limited. The share price sitting near the recent trend helps limit downside more than it suggests a near-term rerating.

Primary drivers

AI projects should make operations cheaper and faster
Easy Trade app can bring new customers and activity
Relatively low valuation helps reduce potential losses
Light trading volume means less near-term momentum

How it played out

TD: target reached in 6 days, peak gain was 28.8%

Lyra published a 5% growth target from 95.22, while expecting TD to trade in a narrow range rather than rise quickly. The thesis pointed to cheaper and faster operations from artificial intelligence projects, new customers and activity from Easy Trade, a relatively low valuation, and light trading volume that limited near-term momentum.

TD reached the 99.98 target in 6 days. It later rose to a 122.65 peak on July 1, a 28.8% gain, then ended the window at 119.30. The price move was much stronger and faster than the narrow-range thesis expected, although the published growth target was exceeded. The thesis partially played out.