Track record · closed signal

Vista Oil Gas ADR (VIST) — closed signal from April 2, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 1, 2026 — -13.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VIST price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$70.00 – $73.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$72.30Published — price the day we called it

$83.15Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$81.44Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$62.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 84% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

-13.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+12.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+14%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$62.69

last close inside the window, ended July 1, 2026

Peak price

$81.44

peak on May 20, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published April 2, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$83.15

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$70.00 – $73.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$72.30

published April 2, 2026

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Vista stands out as a higher-risk, short-term idea because broker views and profit estimates have been revised higher. Recent developments point to stronger expected profits linked to the company, not just oil price headlines. The setup looks healthier after a recent pullback, but oil and gas price swings remain the main risk.

Primary drivers

Analysts raising profit estimates and brokers turning more positive
Company profits and current price leave room for valuation improvement
Recent pullback reset price action and keeps levels constructive
Momentum looks company-driven, not only tied to general oil headlines

How it played out

VIST: the thesis partially played out, but target was missed

Lyra published VIST at $72.30 with expected growth of 15% and a target of $83.15. The thesis pointed to higher profit estimates, more positive broker views, room for valuation improvement, and a constructive setup after a pullback. Oil and gas price swings were the stated main risk.

The price rose to a peak of $81.44 on May 20, a gain of 12.6%. It stayed below the target. By July 1, it had fallen to $62.69, below the publication price. The thesis partially played out during the window, but the target was missed and the gain did not hold.

What happened during the window

On May 7, 2026, Vista reported that it had completed its acquisition of interests in the Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro blocks. On May 11, 2026, the company announced updated guidance that incorporated those blocks.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All VIST signals