Track record · closed signal

International Business Machines (IBM) — closed signal from April 2, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 1, 2026 — +17.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

IBM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$243.81 Published $285.26 Target $286.25 Window close $332.46 Peak
$240.00 – $246.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$243.81Published — price the day we called it
$285.26Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$332.46Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$286.25Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 57 days.

At window close
+17.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+36.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+14%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$286.25
last close inside the window, ended July 1, 2026
Peak price
$332.46
peak on June 2, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
57

The thesis — published April 2, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$285.26
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$240.00 – $246.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$243.81
published April 2, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

IBM mixes exposure to enterprise AI with the stability of a large, established company. The IBM-Arm announcement makes its infrastructure role more important, and the stock sits near recent levels rather than being overbought. The company's steady delivery of results means the case for higher valuation relies more on reliable execution than on hype.

Primary drivers

  • IBM-Arm tie-up boosts demand for enterprise AI infrastructure
  • Hybrid cloud plus infrastructure smooths returns in volatile markets
  • Stock is near short-term support rather than extended highs
  • Reliable execution makes growth expectations more credible

How it played out

IBM: target reached in 57 days

Lyra published IBM at $243.81 on April 2, with an entry zone of $240 to $246 and expected growth of 17%. The thesis pointed to enterprise artificial intelligence, the IBM and Arm tie-up, hybrid cloud and infrastructure, support near recent levels, and reliable execution as reasons for the expected rise.

Inside the window, IBM reached the $285.26 target in 57 days. It peaked at $332.46 on June 2, a gain of 36.4% from publication, then ended at $286.25 on July 1. The thesis played out. The target was reached, the peak cleared it, and the closing price remained above it.

What happened during the window

On April 22, IBM reported first-quarter revenue of $15.9 billion, up 9%. Software revenue rose 11%, while infrastructure revenue rose 15%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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