Track record · closed signal

International Business Machines (IBM) — closed signal from April 2, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 1, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

IBM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$243.81 Published $285.26 Target $286.25 Window close $332.46 Peak
$240.00 – $246.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$243.81Published — price the day we called it
$285.26Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$332.46Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$286.25Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 57 days.

Peak price
$332.46
peak on June 2, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+36.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$286.25
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
57
Window
April 2, 2026 – July 1, 2026

The thesis — published April 2, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$285.26
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$240.00 – $246.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$243.81
published April 2, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

IBM mixes exposure to enterprise AI with the stability of a large, established company. The IBM-Arm announcement makes its infrastructure role more important, and the stock sits near recent levels rather than being overbought. The company's steady delivery of results means the case for higher valuation relies more on reliable execution than on hype.

Primary drivers

  • IBM-Arm tie-up boosts demand for enterprise AI infrastructure
  • Hybrid cloud plus infrastructure smooths returns in volatile markets
  • Stock is near short-term support rather than extended highs
  • Reliable execution makes growth expectations more credible

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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