Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 1, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 30, 2026 — +31.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$336.76 – $346.72Entry zone — fair-value band

$346.10Published — price the day we called it

$393.83Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$476.79Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$455.10Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 23 days.

At window close

+31.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+37.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+14.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$455.10

last close inside the window, ended June 30, 2026

Peak price

$476.79

peak on June 22, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 1, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$393.83

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$336.76 – $346.72

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$346.10

published April 1, 2026

Confidence

81%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Taiwan Semiconductor is staying steady: its business is still growing, the company has strong finances, and the stock is holding near its longer-term trend instead of falling. New plans to expand advanced chip production in Japan point to steady future demand. Mention that some customers may also use Samsung helps keep expectations realistic rather than overly optimistic.

Primary drivers

Strong demand for advanced chip manufacturing capacity
Japan expansion adds durable long-term production capability
Earnings have been consistently reliable and meet expectations
Next earnings report is a near-term event to watch for confirmation

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 23 days

Lyra published TSM at 346.10 with expected growth of 14% and a target of 393.83. The thesis pointed to demand for advanced chip capacity, expansion in Japan, reliable earnings, and the next earnings report as a check on the outlook. It also noted possible customer use of Samsung.

The stock reached the target in 23 days. It later peaked at 476.79 on June 22, a gain of 37.8%, and ended the window at 455.10. The price stayed above the target at the close. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective.

What happened during the window

On April 16, TSMC reported first-quarter revenue of NT$1,134.10 billion and diluted earnings per share of NT$22.08. On June 10, it reported May revenue of NT$416.98 billion, up 30.1% from May 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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