Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 1, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 30, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$346.10 Published $393.83 Target $455.10 Window close $476.79 Peak
$336.76 – $346.72Entry zone — fair-value band
$346.10Published — price the day we called it
$393.83Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$476.79Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$455.10Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 23 days.

Peak price
$476.79
peak on June 22, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+37.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$455.10
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
23
Window
April 1, 2026 – June 30, 2026

The thesis — published April 1, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$393.83
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$336.76 – $346.72
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$346.10
published April 1, 2026
Confidence
81%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Taiwan Semiconductor is staying steady: its business is still growing, the company has strong finances, and the stock is holding near its longer-term trend instead of falling. New plans to expand advanced chip production in Japan point to steady future demand. Mention that some customers may also use Samsung helps keep expectations realistic rather than overly optimistic.

Primary drivers

  • Strong demand for advanced chip manufacturing capacity
  • Japan expansion adds durable long-term production capability
  • Earnings have been consistently reliable and meet expectations
  • Next earnings report is a near-term event to watch for confirmation

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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