Track record · closed signal

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) — closed signal from July 26, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 24, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSLA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$316.06 Published $363.47 Target $433.72 Window close $470.75 Peak
$300.00 – $309.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$316.06Published — price the day we called it
$363.47Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$470.75Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$433.72Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 47 days.

Peak price
$470.75
peak on October 2, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+48.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$433.72
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
47
Window
July 26, 2025 – October 24, 2025

The thesis — published July 26, 2025

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$363.47
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$300.00 – $309.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$316.06
published July 26, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Tesla might grab attention again when it shows its self-driving taxi plans on 8 Aug and talks more about its powerful Dojo computer. Over the past few days, many more shares than normal changed hands, hinting that big investors are interested. But a new government investigation into how Tesla advertises its self-driving feature could slow things down. If the price holds around $300, it might climb toward $355, though sharp ups and downs are likely.

Primary drivers

  • The 8 Aug showcase could reveal when robot taxis will begin to earn revenue.
  • Unusually high share buying suggests big institutions are taking positions.
  • Many near-term option bets at $350-$400 could add fuel to a price jump.
  • A state probe of self-driving ads remains a key risk that tempers the view.

How it played out

TSLA: target reached in 47 days

Lyra published TSLA at $316.06 on 2025-07-26 with a short-term thesis for 15% growth. The thesis pointed to an 8 Aug self-driving taxi showcase, more detail on Dojo, unusually high share buying, near-term option bets at $350-$400, and a state probe of self-driving ads as a risk.

Inside the window, TSLA reached the $363.47 target in 47 days. It later peaked at $470.75 on 2025-10-02, up 48.9% from publication. The window ended at $433.72, still above the target. The thesis played out and more than reached its price goal.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-02, Tesla reported record third-quarter deliveries of 497,099 vehicles. On 2025-10-22, Tesla reported third-quarter revenue of $28.1 billion and profit of $1.4 billion, down 37% from a year earlier.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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