Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from March 31, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 29, 2026 — +40.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$313.84 – $328.79Entry zone — fair-value band

$323.60Published — price the day we called it

$394.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$476.79Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$455.10Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 24 days.

At window close

+40.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+47.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+14.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$455.10

last close inside the window, ended June 29, 2026

Peak price

$476.79

peak on June 22, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 31, 2026

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$394.07

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$313.84 – $328.79

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$323.60

published March 31, 2026

Confidence

83%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM looks relatively solid for the next few months because demand for advanced chips and its manufacturing edge remain visible, even after a recent sector drop. Strong cash and profit margins help limit downside. If the shares stabilize around the recent reset area, upcoming earnings could shift focus back to AI-related and advanced-node demand.

Primary drivers

Ongoing demand for advanced chips and AI uses
Top foundry position keeps customers returning
Coverage highlights manufacturing strength after volatility
Next earnings could bring focus to execution and demand

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 24 days

Lyra published TSM at 323.60 with expected growth of 22%. The thesis pointed to demand for advanced chips and artificial intelligence uses, TSM's foundry position and manufacturing strength, strong cash and profit margins, and the prospect that upcoming earnings would return attention to execution and demand.

The shares reached the 394.07 target in 24 days. They later peaked at 476.79 on June 22, a gain of 47.3% within the window, and ended at 455.10 on June 29. The thesis played out fully, and the price remained above the target at the end.

What happened during the window

On April 16, TSMC reported first-quarter revenue of NT$1,134.10 billion and diluted earnings per share of NT$22.08. On June 10, it reported May revenue of NT$416.98 billion, up 30.1% from May 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals