Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from March 31, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 29, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$323.60 Published $394.07 Target $455.10 Window close $476.79 Peak
$313.84 – $328.79Entry zone — fair-value band
$323.60Published — price the day we called it
$394.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$476.79Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$455.10Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 24 days.

Peak price
$476.79
peak on June 22, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+47.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$455.10
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
24
Window
March 31, 2026 – June 29, 2026

The thesis — published March 31, 2026

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$394.07
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$313.84 – $328.79
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$323.60
published March 31, 2026
Confidence
83%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM looks relatively solid for the next few months because demand for advanced chips and its manufacturing edge remain visible, even after a recent sector drop. Strong cash and profit margins help limit downside. If the shares stabilize around the recent reset area, upcoming earnings could shift focus back to AI-related and advanced-node demand.

Primary drivers

  • Ongoing demand for advanced chips and AI uses
  • Top foundry position keeps customers returning
  • Coverage highlights manufacturing strength after volatility
  • Next earnings could bring focus to execution and demand

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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