Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from March 28, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 26, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$326.14 Published $384.14 Target $432.35 Window close $476.79 Peak
$318.83 – $330.78Entry zone — fair-value band
$326.14Published — price the day we called it
$384.14Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$476.79Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$432.35Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 25 days.

Peak price
$476.79
peak on June 22, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+46.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$432.35
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
25
Window
March 28, 2026 – June 26, 2026

The thesis — published March 28, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$384.14
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$318.83 – $330.78
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$326.14
published March 28, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is the leading contract chip maker and is closely tied to AI-driven demand. The stock has pulled back enough that a near-term entry looks more attractive, while strong execution and a large cash balance keep the company's outlook intact. If chip-sector sentiment steadies, the shares have room to rebound in the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • AI-related foundry demand drives spending on advanced chips
  • Recent coverage highlights leadership in advanced chip manufacturing
  • Strong cash position helps the company weather market pullbacks
  • Weaker recent price action creates space for a near-term rebound

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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