Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from March 27, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 25, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$327.52 Published $385.76 Target $434.99 Window close $476.79 Peak
$318.83 – $332.77Entry zone — fair-value band
$327.52Published — price the day we called it
$385.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$476.79Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$434.99Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 26 days.

Peak price
$476.79
peak on June 22, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+45.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$434.99
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
26
Window
March 27, 2026 – June 25, 2026

The thesis — published March 27, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$385.76
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$318.83 – $332.77
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$327.52
published March 27, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Taiwan Semiconductor looks positioned to benefit if chip demand improves over the next few months. A bigger spending plan for its factories supports more work on AI chips, and the recent stock drop seems driven more by trading than by business problems. The company's market position, cash on hand, and manufacturing scale offer real backing if investor sentiment toward chips steadies.

Primary drivers

  • Leader in making advanced chips used for AI workloads and clients
  • Bigger factory spending makes future order visibility clearer
  • Reliable profits and strong cash balances add financial stability
  • Recent pullback could leave room for share recovery if sentiment improves

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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