Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from March 27, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 25, 2026 — +32.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$318.83 – $332.77Entry zone — fair-value band

$327.52Published — price the day we called it

$385.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$476.79Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$434.99Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 26 days.

At window close

+32.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+45.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+16.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$434.99

last close inside the window, ended June 25, 2026

Peak price

$476.79

peak on June 22, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 27, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$385.76

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$318.83 – $332.77

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$327.52

published March 27, 2026

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Taiwan Semiconductor looks positioned to benefit if chip demand improves over the next few months. A bigger spending plan for its factories supports more work on AI chips, and the recent stock drop seems driven more by trading than by business problems. The company's market position, cash on hand, and manufacturing scale offer real backing if investor sentiment toward chips steadies.

Primary drivers

Leader in making advanced chips used for AI workloads and clients
Bigger factory spending makes future order visibility clearer
Reliable profits and strong cash balances add financial stability
Recent pullback could leave room for share recovery if sentiment improves

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 26 days

Lyra published TSM at $327.52 with expected growth of 18%. The thesis pointed to demand for advanced chips, increased factory spending, reliable profits, strong cash balances, manufacturing scale, and room for recovery after the recent pullback.

The shares reached the $385.76 target in 26 days. They later peaked at $476.79 on June 22, a gain of 45.6%. TSM ended the window at $434.99, still above the target. The thesis played out and exceeded its published price objective within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On April 16, 2026, TSMC reported first-quarter revenue of NT$1,134.10 billion and net income of NT$572.48 billion. On June 10, 2026, it reported May revenue of NT$416.98 billion, up 30.1% from May 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals