Track record · closed signal

Netflix Inc (NFLX) — closed signal from March 26, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 24, 2026 — -22.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NFLX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$90.00 – $94.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$92.59Published — price the day we called it

$104.63Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$108.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$71.84Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 19 days.

At window close

-22.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+17.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+14%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$71.84

last close inside the window, ended June 24, 2026

Peak price

$108.94

peak on April 16, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 26, 2026

Predicted growth

+13%

over the measurement window

Target price

$104.63

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$90.00 – $94.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$92.59

published March 26, 2026

Confidence

71%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Netflix remains interesting because its business is still gaining momentum and a coming earnings report gives a clear near-term event that could move the stock. Shares have been stronger recently, but the stock must show it can hold its short-term trend in a market that is more selective about growth. The setup looks plausible but not fully confirmed yet.

Primary drivers

Earnings coming soon gives a clear near-term event
Shares have shown recent strength tied to business momentum
Holding the 20-day trend is key to the setup
Subscriber growth and better monetization support the growth story

How it played out

NFLX: target reached in 19 days, then reversed

Lyra published a short-term thesis for a 13% rise from $92.59 toward $104.63. The thesis pointed to upcoming earnings, recent share strength tied to business momentum, the need to hold the 20-day trend, subscriber growth and better monetization.

NFLX reached the target in 19 days and peaked at $108.94 on April 16, a 17.7% gain. By June 24, it had fallen to $71.84. The near-term price target was reached, so the thesis played out, even though the gain did not hold through the end of the window.