Track record · closed signal

International Business Machines (IBM) — closed signal from March 26, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 24, 2026 — +7.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

IBM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$238.00 – $246.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$243.85Published — price the day we called it

$277.99Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$332.46Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$262.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 64 days.

At window close

+7.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+36.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+14%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$262.96

last close inside the window, ended June 24, 2026

Peak price

$332.46

peak on June 2, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 26, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$277.99

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$238.00 – $246.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$243.85

published March 26, 2026

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

IBM looks like a steadier tech choice for the next few months because big companies keep spending on security, consulting, and mainframe services. A new security partnership and slower-than-expected legacy migrations make demand more reliable. The stock is repairing below its recent average price, so upside seems measured with smaller downside risk than many software names.

Primary drivers

Security partnership keeps IBM relevant to large companies
Mainframes and old systems keep steady, repeat demand
Consistent earnings beats suggest smoother execution
Repair below the recent average price gives a controlled setup

How it played out

IBM: target reached in 64 days

Lyra published IBM at 243.85 with 14% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a new security partnership, steady demand for mainframes and older systems, consistent earnings beats, and a price recovery below its recent average.

The stock reached the 277.99 target after 64 days. It rose as high as 332.46 on June 2, a peak gain of 36.3%. It ended the window at 262.96, below the target but above the publication price. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On April 22, IBM reported first-quarter revenue of $15.9 billion, up 9%. On May 21, IBM and the U.S. Department of Commerce announced plans for a quantum chip foundry supported by $1 billion in federal incentives.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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