Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from March 25, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 23, 2026 — +25.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$338.75 – $348.72Entry zone — fair-value band

$346.86Published — price the day we called it

$394.69Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$476.79Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$436.39Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 30 days.

At window close

+25.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+37.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+12%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$436.39

last close inside the window, ended June 23, 2026

Peak price

$476.79

peak on June 22, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 25, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$394.69

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$338.75 – $348.72

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$346.86

published March 25, 2026

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC looks attractive short-term because it runs its business well, has a solid balance sheet, and the share price is settling near a logical buying area instead of running away higher. Improvements in Taiwan logistics and steady investment in AI hardware point to ongoing chip demand across the supply chain.

Primary drivers

Top chip-maker for AI and high-performance designs
Reliable results and healthy profit margins
Taiwan logistics upgrades help keep supply steady
Price holding near trend keeps entries disciplined

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 30 days

Lyra published a 14% growth thesis from 346.86, with a target of 394.69. The thesis pointed to strong execution, a solid balance sheet, healthy margins, logistics upgrades in Taiwan, disciplined entry pricing, and demand for artificial intelligence and high-performance chips.

The shares reached the target in 30 days. They later peaked at 476.79 on June 22, 2026, a 37.5% gain, then ended the window at 436.39. The peak and closing price were both above the target. The published thesis played out and exceeded its stated expectation.

What happened during the window

On April 16, 2026, TSMC reported first-quarter revenue of NT$1,134.10 billion and diluted earnings per share of NT$22.08. On April 23, 2026, it announced its A13 process technology at its North America Technology Symposium.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals