Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from March 24, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 22, 2026 — +38.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$330.78 – $340.74Entry zone — fair-value band

$338.44Published — price the day we called it

$398.62Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$476.79Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$467.67Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 31 days.

At window close

+38.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+40.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+14.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$467.67

last close inside the window, ended June 22, 2026

Peak price

$476.79

peak on June 22, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 24, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$398.62

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$330.78 – $340.74

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$338.44

published March 24, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Taiwan Semiconductor looks like a relatively safer way to play fast-growing AI chip demand in the next few months. The business is strong and recent reports point to tight chip capacity, which supports pricing. Shares have cooled from prior strength and are near support, so the mix of quality, visible demand drivers, and limited pullback risk feels favorable in a volatile market.

Primary drivers

Growing AI chip demand helps pricing and keeps factories busy
Recent reports point to limited supply for advanced chip production
Price action has eased and is consolidating instead of running away
Reliable execution history helps the company weather volatility

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 31 days

Lyra published TSM at $338.44 with an 18% expected gain and a $398.62 target. The thesis pointed to growing artificial intelligence chip demand, limited advanced-chip supply, supportive pricing, and busy factories. It also cited a recent pullback toward support, steadier price action, and the company's execution history as reasons the setup looked favorable.

The shares reached the target in 31 days. They later peaked at $476.79 on June 22, a 40.9% gain, and ended the window at $467.67. The peak was above the target, and the closing price stayed above it. The published thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective.

What happened during the window

On April 16, TSMC reported first-quarter revenue of NT$1,134.10 billion and diluted earnings of NT$22.08 per share. On May 8, TSMC and Sony announced a preliminary agreement for a strategic partnership to develop and manufacture next-generation image sensors.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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