Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from July 26, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 24, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 72 days.
The thesis — published July 26, 2025
TSMC makes most of the worlds cutting-edge chips and just reported sales up 44 percent from last year, so leaders raised their forecast for 2025. Its newest 3-nanometer and advanced packaging lines are fully booked until 2026, locking in revenue. After a modest 7 percent price slide, buying interest stayed high. A July 26 report calling for another 17 percent gain, plus a 95-point optimism reading, suggests the shares could climb toward 300 dollars within the next three months.
Primary drivers
- Newest chip and packaging factories sold out to mid-2026, guaranteeing revenue
- Second-quarter sales up 44 percent versus last year; forecasts and analyst targets raised
- Share price sits close to recent average after pullback, giving room for a bounce
- Media highlighting 68 percent market share keeps investors interested and demand high
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 72 days
Lyra published TSM at 244.17 on 2025-07-26 with 24% expected growth. The thesis pointed to second-quarter sales up 44 percent, raised forecasts, fully booked 3-nanometer and advanced packaging lines until 2026, a 7 percent price slide, and strong buying interest.
Inside the window, TSM reached the 301 target in 72 days. The stock peaked at 310.53 on 2025-10-16, a 27.2% gain. It ended the window at 294.17 on 2025-10-24. The thesis played out. The target was reached, even though the close stayed below the peak.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and net income of NT$452.30 billion. The company also guided fourth-quarter revenue to $32.2 billion to $33.4 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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