Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) — closed signal from March 23, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 21, 2026 — +15.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$211.26 Published $245.06 Target $244.39 Window close $278.56 Peak
$208.00 – $214.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$211.26Published — price the day we called it
$245.06Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$278.56Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$244.39Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 22 days.

At window close
+15.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+31.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+14.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$244.39
last close inside the window, ended June 21, 2026
Peak price
$278.56
peak on May 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
22

The thesis — published March 23, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$245.06
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$208.00 – $214.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$211.26
published March 23, 2026
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Amazon has many businesses-online shopping, cloud services, ads, and payments-so it can keep earning even when consumer news is mixed. Expansion of Amazon Pay into insurance in India broadens its customer offerings. The stock is trading near recent levels rather than running up, so the setup is usable short-term, though market sentiment could still move faster than results.

Primary drivers

  • Cloud services plus ads and retail make earnings less dependent on one area
  • Insurance in India expands how customers use Amazon Pay
  • Recent pullback places the stock close to recent trading levels
  • Large scale and logistics help weather weak consumer demand

How it played out

AMZN: target reached in 22 days

Lyra published the short-term thesis at $211.26 and expected 16% growth. The thesis pointed to cloud services, advertising, retail, and payments as a broad earnings base. It also cited Amazon Pay's expansion into insurance in India, the recent pullback, and Amazon's scale and logistics.

The stock reached the $245.06 target in 22 days. It later peaked at $278.56 on May 5, a 31.9% gain within the window. It ended the window at $244.39, just below the target. The published thesis played out and exceeded its expected growth during the measurement period.

What happened during the window

On April 29, Amazon reported that first-quarter net sales rose 17% to $181.5 billion. AWS sales rose 28% to $37.6 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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