Track record · closed signal

Merck & Company Inc (MRK) — closed signal from March 22, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 20, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MRK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$113.36 Published $123.81 Target $113.87 Window close $123.11 Peak
$110.41 – $113.86Entry zone — fair-value band
$113.36Published — price the day we called it
$123.81Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$123.11Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$113.87Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$123.11
peak on April 9, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+8.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$113.87
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
March 22, 2026 – June 20, 2026

The thesis — published March 22, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$123.81
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$110.41 – $113.86
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$113.36
published March 22, 2026
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Merck looks attractive now because investors are favoring safer healthcare companies, the business generates steady cash, and the recent price drop put shares into a calmer area where buyers may step in. New positive data on GARDASIL 9 gives a timely reason for interest. A rebound seems possible over the next 0-3 months, though the recovery is not yet clearly established.

Primary drivers

  • Healthcare seen as safer during market turbulence
  • New GARDASIL 9 data strengthens the sales story
  • Consistent profits help limit downside risk
  • Recent weakness set up a clearer buying range

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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