Track record · closed signal

Innoviva Inc (INVA) — closed signal from March 20, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 18, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

INVA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$22.07 Published $25.16 Target $22.49 Window close $24.45 Peak
$21.25 – $22.75Entry zone — fair-value band
$22.07Published — price the day we called it
$25.16Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$24.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$22.49Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 77% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$24.45
peak on April 20, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+10.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$22.49
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
March 20, 2026 – June 18, 2026

The thesis — published March 20, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$25.16
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$21.25 – $22.75
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$22.07
published March 20, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Recent company news connects a share buyback plan, a higher price target, and a clearer plan for product revenue growth. Shares trading near their short-term 20-day trend suggest they are not overstretched, which could allow a measured rise if cash generation proves consistent. The thesis relies more on company-specific strength than broad market support.

Primary drivers

  • Share buyback lowers downside risk and signals management confidence
  • Product and royalty mix gives company-specific paths for growth
  • Healthy cash on the balance sheet reduces need for outside funding
  • Higher target helped reinforce the narrative of a turnaround

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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