Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from March 18, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 16, 2026 — +23.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$336.76 – $347.72Entry zone — fair-value band

$346.03Published — price the day we called it

$407.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$449.33Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$425.83Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 37 days.

At window close

+23.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+29.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+13.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$425.83

last close inside the window, ended June 16, 2026

Peak price

$449.33

peak on June 3, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 18, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$407.57

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$336.76 – $347.72

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$346.03

published March 18, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM looks like a strong short-term semiconductor pick because demand for AI chips remains steady and the company is less risky than many peers. Big spending plans from major cloud customers help its business, and TSM is meeting expectations. The stock has dipped a bit, so this feels like a careful buying chance rather than a panic sell.

Primary drivers

Big cloud AI spending increases chip orders
Consistent quarterly wins show reliable execution
Small pullback keeps the longer uptrend intact
Strong cash reserves protect against downturns

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 37 days

Lyra published TSM at $346.03 with expected growth of 18% and a $407.57 target. The thesis pointed to steady demand for artificial intelligence chips, higher spending by major cloud customers, consistent quarterly execution, a small pullback, and strong cash reserves.

The stock reached the target in 37 days. It later peaked at $449.33 on June 3, a gain of 29.9% within the window. It ended the window at $425.83, still above the target. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective.

What happened during the window

On April 16, TSMC reported first-quarter revenue of $35.90 billion and diluted earnings per share of NT$22.08. On May 12, its board approved a capital budget of about $31.28 billion for capacity and facilities.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals