Track record · closed signal

Applovin Corp (APP) — closed signal from March 17, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 15, 2026 — +12.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

APP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$445.00 – $470.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$462.02Published — price the day we called it

$540.56Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$622.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$520.86Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 71 days.

At window close

+12.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+34.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+12.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$520.86

last close inside the window, ended June 15, 2026

Peak price

$622.00

peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 17, 2026

Predicted growth

+17%

over the measurement window

Target price

$540.56

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$445.00 – $470.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$462.02

published March 17, 2026

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Applovin could go up if investors feel better about software and ad companies. Recent buybacks and positive analyst notes after a meeting make the short-term case stronger. However, the stock moves a lot and insiders have been selling, so it's better seen as a cautious watch position for the next 0-3 months rather than a main investment.

Primary drivers

Company is buying shares and analysts are more positive, helping sentiment
Its advertising tech can boost profits if demand for ads stays healthy
Price near recent support makes buying less risky than chasing highs
Big price swings can increase gains but also raise the chance of losses

How it played out

APP: target reached in 71 days

Lyra published APP at $462.02 with an expected gain of 17% and a $540.56 target. The thesis pointed to share buybacks, more positive analyst views, healthy advertising demand, and support near the entry price. It also noted large price swings and insider selling as risks.

APP reached the target in 71 days. It peaked at $622 on June 1, a gain of 34.6%, before ending the window at $520.86. The price finished below the target, but the published thesis played out within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On April 7, AppLovin announced management succession plans and appointed Craig Billings as independent chairperson. On May 6, the company reported first-quarter revenue of $1,842 million and net income of $1,206 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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