Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from March 17, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 15, 2026 — +29.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$332.77 – $343.73Entry zone — fair-value band

$340.49Published — price the day we called it

$404.44Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$449.33Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$441.40Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 38 days.

At window close

+29.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+32%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+12.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$441.40

last close inside the window, ended June 15, 2026

Peak price

$449.33

peak on June 3, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 17, 2026

Predicted growth

+19%

over the measurement window

Target price

$404.44

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$332.77 – $343.73

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$340.49

published March 17, 2026

Confidence

85%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is a key maker of advanced chips for AI. The stock pulled back into a calmer price area, and recent news linking Microsoft accelerators and rising GPU chip demand gives a clear reason for buyers to return. This pullback looks like a real chance to buy rather than just a short-lived bounce.

Primary drivers

Critical chip maker for AI accelerator supply chains
Customer product news keeps demand visible and current
Pullback offers a more careful entry instead of chasing
Solid execution and strong balance sheet limit downside

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 38 days

Lyra published TSM at 340.49, with 19% expected growth and a 404.44 target. The thesis pointed to TSM's role in advanced chips for artificial intelligence, customer product news that kept demand visible, the pullback as a more careful entry, and solid execution and a strong balance sheet.

Within the window, TSM reached the target in 38 days. It later peaked at 449.33 on June 3, a 32% gain. The shares ended the window at 441.40, still above the target. The published thesis played out, and the measured move exceeded the expected growth.

What happened during the window

On April 16, TSMC reported first-quarter revenue of NT$1,134.10 billion and net income of NT$572.48 billion. On May 8, it reported April revenue of NT$410.73 billion, up 17.5% from April 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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