ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) — closed signal from July 25, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 23, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 55 days.
The thesis — published July 25, 2025
Recent talk about export limits knocked the stock down about 15%, even though investor optimism remains high. A major research firm raised its rating on 24-Jul, saying ASML is well placed for 2026 as its newest chip-making machines gain traction. The shares now trade below their usual price level and sit near an area that often draws buyers. Positive order news this quarter could lift the price toward about $905 within three months.
Primary drivers
- Strong demand for the newest chip-making tools supports years of sales
- The stock looks very beaten down after the recent drop
- A respected analyst just raised its price target to €790
- Shares are cheaper than their five-year average price-to-earnings ratio
How it played out
ASML: target reached in 55 days
Lyra published ASML at 721.96 on 2025-07-25 with an expected 25% gain and a target of 898.58. The thesis pointed to demand for the newest chip-making tools, a beaten-down stock after a recent drop, a respected analyst target of €790, and shares trading below their five-year average price-to-earnings ratio.
Inside the window, the stock rose past the target. It peaked at 1057.12 on 2025-10-06, a 46.4% gain, and reached the target in 55 days. It ended the window at 1034.57. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On Oct. 15, 2025, ASML reported third-quarter results. It reported net bookings of €5.4 billion and guided fourth-quarter sales to €9.2 billion to €9.8 billion. On the same date, Investopedia reported that ASML expected China sales to decline significantly in 2026.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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