Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) — closed signal from July 25, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 23, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 73 days.
The thesis — published July 25, 2025
After a quick 40 percent climb this year, the share price has been catching its breath for six weeks. Now daily trading activity is turning positive again, and more shares are changing hands than normal. Managers say sales tied to artificial-intelligence chips should jump around 45 percent a year through 2029. A possible U.S. subsidy and progress at the new Arizona factory may land soon, and news outlets note fresh money flowing into AI stocks. If the price rises back above about $238, it could reach $295 within three months.
Primary drivers
- AI chip sales expected to grow about 45 percent a year until 2029
- Price steadied for six weeks and buying interest is picking up
- U.S. subsidy decision could boost profits and sentiment
- Funds are putting new cash into AI companies, lifting demand
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 73 days
Lyra published TSM on 2025-07-25 at $240.19 as a short-term setup with 24 percent expected growth. The thesis pointed to a six-week pause after a quick 40 percent climb, daily trading activity turning positive, more shares changing hands than normal, expected artificial-intelligence chip sales growth of about 45 percent a year through 2029, a possible U.S. subsidy, Arizona factory progress, and fresh money flowing into chip stocks.
Inside the window, TSM reached the $296.10 target in 73 days. The peak was $310.53 on 2025-10-16, a 29.3 percent gain. It ended at $289.95 on 2025-10-23. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-08-08, Investopedia reported that TSMC's July sales rose 22.5 percent month over month to $10.8 billion. On 2025-10-16, MarketWatch reported that TSMC posted third-quarter net income of TWD 452 billion and revenue of TWD 989 billion, and raised full-year revenue growth guidance to the mid-thirties percentage range.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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