Track record · closed signal

Novavax Inc. (NVAX) — closed signal from July 24, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 22, 2025 — +7.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVAX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$7.00 – $7.40Entry zone — fair-value band

$7.84Published — price the day we called it

$10.98Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$10.64Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$8.46Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 89% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+7.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+35.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$8.46

last close inside the window, ended October 22, 2025

Peak price

$10.64

peak on August 18, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 24, 2025

Predicted growth

+40%

over the measurement window

Target price

$10.98

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$7.00 – $7.40

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$7.84

published July 24, 2025

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The share price jumped 54% after Novavax reported that its combined Covid-flu shot succeeded in a large study. A broker then set a $19 price goal, so excitement is running hot. Another bank still says “sell,” and an overheated momentum reading hints the rally may cool first. If the stock drifts toward about $7.30, it could offer a safer entry before an FDA session in August that will review new strains and may put the stock back in the spotlight.

Primary drivers

Study success lifts the chance regulators will clear the combined vaccine.
A broker’s $19 target hints the share price could more than double despite other skeptics.
Unusually heavy options trading suggests a fast move up is possible after a pause.
An August FDA meeting creates a clear news event that could move the stock.

How it played out

NVAX: rose 35.7% but missed the target

Lyra published NVAX at $7.84 on July 24, 2025, with 40% expected growth and a $10.98 target. The thesis pointed to a 54% jump after Novavax said its combined Covid-flu shot succeeded in a large study, a broker's $19 price goal, heavy options trading, and an August FDA meeting that could put the stock back in focus.

Inside the window from July 24, 2025 to October 22, 2025, NVAX peaked at $10.64 on August 18, 2025. That was a 35.7% gain, but it stayed below the $10.98 target. It ended at $8.46. The thesis partially played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVAX signals