Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) — closed signal from March 15, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 13, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$207.67 Published $236.74 Target $238.55 Window close $278.56 Peak
$203.00 – $210.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$207.67Published — price the day we called it
$236.74Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$278.56Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$238.55Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 26 days.

Peak price
$278.56
peak on May 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+34.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$238.55
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
26
Window
March 15, 2026 – June 13, 2026

The thesis — published March 15, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$236.74
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$203.00 – $210.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$207.67
published March 15, 2026
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Amazon pulled back recently, which makes buying easier without changing the core business story across online retail, cloud services, ads, and logistics. The stock is close to a normal buying area rather than crashing. Because recent news is general and not company-specific, confidence is moderate and avoid chasing rallies in a fragile market.

Primary drivers

  • AWS and advertising help drive profits across the business
  • Large logistics network helps during softer consumer demand
  • Recent pullback gives a better chance to buy on a rebound
  • Big-company size can draw buyers when markets calm

How it played out

AMZN: target reached in 26 days

Lyra published AMZN at 207.67 on 2026-03-15, with a short-term view for 14% growth. The target was 236.74. The thesis pointed to AWS and advertising profits, the logistics network, the recent pullback, and the chance that buyers would return to large companies when markets calmed.

Inside the window, AMZN reached the target in 26 days. It later peaked at 278.56 on 2026-05-05, a 34.1% gain. By 2026-06-13, it ended at 238.55, still above the target. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-29, Amazon reported first-quarter net sales of $181.5 billion. MarketWatch also reported that AWS sales rose to $37.6 billion in the quarter. These were company results during the window, not stated here as the cause of the stock move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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