Track record · closed signal

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) — closed signal from March 14, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 12, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVAX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$10.24 Published $12.49 Target $8.88 Window close $11.61 Peak
$9.70 – $10.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$10.24Published — price the day we called it
$12.49Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$11.61Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$8.88Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 61% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$11.61
peak on May 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+13.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$8.88
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
March 14, 2026 – June 12, 2026

The thesis — published March 14, 2026

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$12.49
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$9.70 – $10.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$10.24
published March 14, 2026
Confidence
85%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Novavax went from being mostly a hope story to showing real business progress: it unexpectedly made a profit and signed a licensing deal with Pfizer. That outside deal and better recent results make a near-term rebound more believable. The stock is still risky and can move fast, so keep positions small and manage risk.

Primary drivers

  • Unexpected profit made the business story stronger
  • Pfizer deal gives outside validation for the company
  • Licensing expands where the company can earn money
  • Price movement now matches improving business news

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVAX signals