Track record · closed signal

AppLovin Corporation (APP) — closed signal from March 13, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

APP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$459.14 Published $500.46 Target $478.57 Window close $622.00 Peak
$445.00 – $465.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$459.14Published — price the day we called it
$500.46Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$622.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$478.57Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 55 days.

Peak price
$622.00
peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+35.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$478.57
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
55
Window
March 13, 2026 – June 11, 2026

The thesis — published March 13, 2026

Predicted growth
+9%
over the measurement window
Target price
$500.46
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$445.00 – $465.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$459.14
published March 13, 2026
Confidence
61%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AppLovin has a believable long-term story around using AI in advertising, but right now the situation is messy. Recent talk focuses more on future potential than on immediate proof the company will deliver, and the stock has been swinging a lot after a big run-up. That makes it risky over the next few months, so it is not recommended now.

Primary drivers

  • AI-focused advertising keeps long-term interest in the company
  • Platform tools generate real revenue and can be profitable
  • Price movement is still unsettled after a sharp drop
  • No strong near-term events to prove the growth story

How it played out

APP: target reached in 55 days

Lyra published APP on 2026-03-13 at 459.14 with expected growth of 9%. The thesis pointed to long-term interest in artificial intelligence-focused advertising, real revenue from platform tools, unsettled price movement after a sharp drop, and no strong near-term events to prove the growth story. It was cautious, not a clean near-term endorsement.

Inside the window, the stock reached the 500.46 target in 55 days. It later peaked at 622 on 2026-06-01, with a peak gain of 35.5%. By 2026-06-11, it ended at 478.57. The target was reached, so the price path beat the published short-term setup.

What happened during the window

On May 7, 2026, AppLovin reported first-quarter adjusted earnings of $3.56 per share on revenue of $1.84 billion. The company also gave second-quarter revenue guidance of $1.92 billion to $1.95 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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