Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) — closed signal from July 24, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 22, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 47 days.
The thesis — published July 24, 2025
Alibaba’s U.S.-traded shares just moved above $118 with far more buyers than usual, yet the stock still sells for only about 11 times next year’s expected earnings, well below its normal price tag. Chinese markets are the strongest they have been in three years, and extra cash from the central bank is helping money flow in. Even with a recent target-price cut and a famous investor betting against it, stronger profit from the cloud unit and talk of economic support could lift the share price about 20 percent by the Singles Day shopping festival.
Primary drivers
- Strong buying push above $118 signals the trend may be turning up.
- Shares trade at 11× earnings versus the usual 17×, leaving catch-up room.
- Chinese stocks and extra central-bank cash boost investor mood.
- Cloud profits rising and possible spin-off keep growth story alive.
How it played out
BABA: target reached in 47 days
Lyra published BABA at $122.58 on July 24, 2025, with expected growth of 20 percent. The thesis pointed to a strong buying push above $118, a valuation of 11 times earnings versus the usual 17 times, stronger Chinese stocks, extra central-bank cash, rising cloud profits, and possible support for growth.
Inside the window, the stock reached the $147.10 target in 47 days. It later peaked at $192.67 on October 2, 2025, with a peak gain of 57.2 percent. By October 22, 2025, it ended at $165.86. The thesis played out and then went further than the target.
What happened during the window
On August 29, 2025, Alibaba reported June-quarter results. Investors.com reported adjusted earnings of 14.75 yuan per ADS, revenue of 247.65 billion yuan, and Cloud Intelligence revenue of 33.3 billion yuan. On the same date, The Wall Street Journal reported adjusted net profit of 33.51 billion yuan and net profit of 43.12 billion yuan.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
Share this receipt
A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.
Read the next call before it closes.
This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.